Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 10 2023 12:44:07

ACUS01 KWNS 101244
SWODY1
SPC AC 101242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf
coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic
Peninsula of Washington.

....Synopsis...
A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may
focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period.  Any
convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the
surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for
charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.  Farther west,
isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across
southwest NM and far west TX.  Weak elevated CAPE and ascent
downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a
few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the
threat ends during the afternoon.

Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the
last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula
as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver
by 08-12z.  Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the
WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development
is expected today.

...Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023

$$

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