Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 10 2023 07:39:42

FOUS30 KWBC 100739
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 10 2023 - 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER TEXAS COAST...
Front pushing south across the region this morning is expected to
stall near the coast today.  Warm, moist southwest flow aloft will
support PWs at or above 2 inches along the coast.  This moisture
along with large-scale ascent afforded in part by right-entrance
region upper jet forcing will help generate widespread
precipitation across the region.  While instability will be
limited, a saturated air column may support efficient rates.  A
Marginal Risk was introduced highlighting the area where the HREF
is showing high neighborhood probabilities for additional amounts
of 3 inches or more.  This includes portions of the Texas coast
that received locally heavy amounts yesterday and where 3-hr FFG
values have dropped below 0.25 inch in some locations.

Pereira




Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023 - 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023 - 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68rOXRgk8xhPG9OVXZebdaiPrgSGxXPxMBg2vlFMR6HG=
_PzEMV-STigHLQ6B-wUB3oGpBCX2_KjQQEkNFlh7tWSEaqc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68rOXRgk8xhPG9OVXZebdaiPrgSGxXPxMBg2vlFMR6HG=
_PzEMV-STigHLQ6B-wUB3oGpBCX2_KjQQEkNFlh7n2rstNA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68rOXRgk8xhPG9OVXZebdaiPrgSGxXPxMBg2vlFMR6HG=
_PzEMV-STigHLQ6B-wUB3oGpBCX2_KjQQEkNFlh7ZZ8xO_s$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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