Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 10 2023 00:41:04

ACUS01 KWNS 100040
SWODY1
SPC AC 100039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible tonight across south Texas, and
over portions of southwest and south-central New Mexico.

....01z Update...

Surface front is forecast to advance into deep South TX by 06z, then
into the lower Rio Grande Valley by the end of the period. Broad
southwesterly flow atop this frontal surge will continue to
encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of the
boundary, but lightning should be fairly sparse. However, greater
buoyancy currently exists across the TX Coastal Plain, especially
southern areas. 00z sounding from CRP exhibits modest buoyancy, but
weak lapse rates due to a moist profile (PW around 2 inches). Latest
lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms are concentrated in
this higher-instability air mass, just southwest of CRP. Current
thinking is most lightning flashes will be noted across deep South
TX the rest of the period.

Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have weakened over southwest NM
into northern Mexico. Even so, a few flashes of lightning can not be
ruled out across this region tonight with weak convection that
evolves ahead of the approaching short-wave trough.

...Darrow.. 11/10/2023

$$

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