Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 09 2023 16:12:03

ACUS01 KWNS 091611
SWODY1
SPC AC 091610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.

....Synopsis...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across
portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm
advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms
are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the
southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place
ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to
near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to
modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit
stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential.

Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM
and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the
surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area
and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from
the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening
midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few
lightning flashes.

...Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023

$$

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