Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 09 2023 15:52:22

FOUS30 KWBC 091552
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Nov 9 2023 - 12Z Fri Nov 10 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE
TEXAS GULF COAST...

There has been a higher trend in the latest CAM/high res guidance
for locally enhanced QPF across portions of the ArkLaTex and also
extending south across portions of eastern Texas and the central
Texas Gulf Coast.  A slow moving cold front is intersecting an
anomalously moist airmass across the region, with PWs rising to
near 2 inches and surface dewpoints into the lower 70s across
southeastern Texas this afternoon.  Furthermore, this region will
be near the right entrance region of a strong 250 mb jet stream,
and this will aid ascent ahead of the front.

For the outlook area encompassing southeastern OK, southwestern
AR, northeastern TX, and northwestern LA, the heaviest rainfall is
expected during the midday hours Thursday followed by a gradual
abatement going into the afternoon hours.  Although rainfall rates
are not expected to be all that high, there may be some instances
of elevated convection training across this region that may lead
to increased ponding of water and run-off problems, but one of the
mitigating factors is the recent dry weather.

Farther south near the Texas Gulf Coast, there will be greater
instability with a deep nearly saturated layer ahead of the front.
 The latest HRRR suggests the greatest rainfall rates are expected
between 21Z and 6Z tonight, with some hourly rainfall rates on the
order of 1-2 inches per hour possible.  There may be a few
locations that have instances of convective training with 3+
inches of total rainfall possible by 12Z Friday just inland from
the coast, and this may also be enough for localized flooding
concerns.  Therefore, a Marginal Risk area is now valid.

Hamrick





Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 10 2023 - 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023 - 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5z1wVpiPkTqvP9hZNssZPBMrAZDQ36VV3mS4FIUPmJvw=
EyRjGbHGsLhA6XPRlLrGD2_snL2lK5nBr28RvPYC9LR2W-0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5z1wVpiPkTqvP9hZNssZPBMrAZDQ36VV3mS4FIUPmJvw=
EyRjGbHGsLhA6XPRlLrGD2_snL2lK5nBr28RvPYCMr5baPA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5z1wVpiPkTqvP9hZNssZPBMrAZDQ36VV3mS4FIUPmJvw=
EyRjGbHGsLhA6XPRlLrGD2_snL2lK5nBr28RvPYCXHsNQAM$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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