Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 09 2023 09:31:59

ACUS48 KWNS 090931
SWOD48
SPC AC 090930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Split flow is expected to prevail throughout the period, with the
northern stream extending from the off the Pacific Northwest coast
eastward along the international border vicinity and through the
Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs are
expected to traverse through this belt of enhanced flow, but stable
conditions will persist across the majority of the region. The only
exception is along the Pacific Northwest coast, where convection is
possible within any frontal bands that move ashore.

Within the southern stream, a slow-moving shortwave trough is
forecast to move across TX on D5/Monday, contributing to the
development of a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this low, with some
potentially impacting portions of southeast TX and southern LA on
D5/Monday and the central Gulf Coast on D6/Tuesday. Limited buoyancy
and shear should keep the severe potential low.

Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the
potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast
during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into
next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a
more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm
track closer to the low-level moisture.

...Mosier.. 11/09/2023

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