Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2268
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 09 2023 07:36:59

ACUS11 KWNS 090736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090736=20
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-091200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023

Areas affected...northern NY...VT...western NH

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 090736Z - 091200Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05 to 0.15 inches per 3 hours are
forecast through 12 UTC.  Mixed precipitation type in the form of
snow/sleet/freezing rain will also occur before a gradual warming of
the profile favors sleet/freezing rain.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic the past few hours has shown a moderate to
heavy precipitation shield over the Lake Ontario vicinity.  This
precipitation is mainly in response to zone of strong low-level
warm-air advection/isentropic lift spreading northeast from the
Lower Great Lakes into New England tonight.  Surface temperatures
are at or below freezing across the Adirondacks into VT where
initial precipitation has been in form of snow/sleet/freezing rain
across northern NY.  As additional warming in the 850-700 mb layer
occurs tonight (especially with south extent), precipitation will
likely transition from snow to sleet to sleet/freezing rain during
the 09-12 UTC period.  Model QPF and current radar trends indicate
appreciable freezing rain rates (0.05 to 0.15 inches per 3 hours)
may occur in areas where cold air in the low levels is slow to
modify and where longer duration of freezing rain occurs.

...Smith.. 11/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4UcMgTOFNgA9g6UVPmI4P3ExUA_zQVaVEU1or7Up-xwq_XjIVEDEqufsdkDj4Er5HklGOJUJs=
jpUemI36bcC6WAE24k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43987576 44617441 44547259 44307200 43917147 43507133
            43127160 42947365 43167574 43517599 43987576=20


=3D =3D =3D
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