Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 09 2023 05:34:26 ACUS01 KWNS 090534 SWODY1 SPC AC 090532 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into south Texas. A few flashes of lightning may also be noted along the Washington Coast. ....Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico into west TX Thursday afternoon and then weaken as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This downstream weakening is partly due to high-level confluence that will also encourage surface pressure rises across the southern High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface front will advance into northern LA, arcing southwest into deep south TX by early evening. Scattered elevated convection will develop along the cool side of the boundary in response to the short wave, but weak low-level convergence should limit warm-sector coverage/intensity. Seasonally high-PW air mass will extend across south TX into the lower MS Valley. That will ultimately lead to weak buoyancy within a marginal-lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the warm sector exhibit strong bulk shear through 6km, but weak low-level flow/shear. While a few storms may display weak rotation across deep south TX, thermodynamic environment appears too negligible, given the weak low-level convergence, for any meaningful risk of severe. ....Pacific Northwest... Strong short-wave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast by 10/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures will help steepen lapse rates near/immediately behind the surface front as it moves inland by early evening. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with weak convection associated with this feature. ...Darrow/Bentley.. 11/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .