Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 08 2023 21:30:28

ACUS01 KWNS 082130
SWODY1
SPC AC 082128

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

No changes to the thunder line were required at 20Z. Elevated
instability will continue to support scattered thunderstorms through
tonight as storms move from WI/Lake MI eastward toward Lake
Erie/Ontario tonight. Instability is unlikely to support severe
hail, though strong effective shear and minimal boundary-layer
melting could potentially result in very small hail reaching the
surface.

...Jewell/Hart.. 11/08/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/

A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the
central Plains.  An associated deepening surface low will move
across IL and into the Great Lakes region.  Low-level warm advection
to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered
precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Organized severe storms are not expected in this region.

Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as
a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary
boundary.  A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall
risk appears to be less than 10%.

$$

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