Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 08 2023 05:25:52

ACUS01 KWNS 080525
SWODY1
SPC AC 080524

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough (with several embedded shortwaves) is forecast
to move eastward across the Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great
Lakes through the forecast period. As this occurs, a surface cyclone
will move from the east-central Great Plains toward the lower Great
Lakes, and a trailing cold front will move through parts of the
southern Plains, mid-MS Valley, and Midwest.

Multiple rounds of elevated convection will be possible across the
Great Lakes region. The first round will move eastward across lower
MI during the morning and early afternoon, in association with a
midlevel shortwave trough. The second round is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening to the north of the warm front across
southern lower MI into the lower Great Lakes region, and just north
of the trailing cold front into parts of southeast WI/northeast IL.
The strongest storms may produce small hail within a favorably
sheared environment, but elevated buoyancy appears too weak to
support a severe-hail threat.

Post-frontal showers may also develop during the late evening and
overnight from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR, but with weaker
large-scale ascent across this region, it remains uncertain as to
whether convection will become deep enough to support lightning
prior to the end of the forecast period.

...Dean.. 11/08/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.