Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 08 2023 00:56:20

ACUS01 KWNS 080056
SWODY1
SPC AC 080054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected for the remainder of tonight.

....Southeast MN/eastern IA into WI/northern IL...
Low-level moisture transport related to a strengthening low-level
jet will support the development of modest MUCAPE (150-300 J/kg)
late tonight into parts of WI/northern IL, and adjacent portions of
southern MN and eastern IA. Elevated convection within the
developing warm-advection regime may become capable of producing
sporadic lightning flashes late this evening into the overnight
hours, with the greatest relative coverage still expected across
southern WI and far northern IL. Very isolated lightning flashes
cannot be ruled out as far north as east-central MN and central WI,
though very weak buoyancy should limit thunderstorm coverage in that
area.

....Elsewhere...
Diurnal convection across parts of the Sierra Nevada has produced
sporadic lightning flashes through the afternoon. This convection is
expected to diminish with time, though very isolated lightning
flashes could persist into the early evening. Very sporadic
lightning flashes have also been noted across northern UT, though
with very weak buoyancy across the region (as noted on the 00Z SLC
sounding), any lightning activity this evening is expected to remain
quite sporadic and isolated.

...Dean.. 11/08/2023

$$

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