Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 07 2023 19:28:19

ACUS01 KWNS 071928
SWODY1
SPC AC 071926

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion.

...Jewell.. 11/07/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/

....Upper Midwest...
A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the
northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream
upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low
over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection
expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity.
RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in
the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to
support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts.

....Elsewhere...
The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been
removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for
additional lightning appears minimal.

$$

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