Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 06 2023 19:40:02

ACUS01 KWNS 061939
SWODY1
SPC AC 061938

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

....20z Update...

The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update were to remove
general thunderstorm probabilities from Lower MI. Thunderstorm
activity has shifted east into southern Ontario, and may persist
across the lower Great Lakes into adjacent parts of OH/PA/NY through
evening. Thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed from
parts of central OR and WA based on latest forecast guidance. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Leitman.. 11/06/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/

....Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the
Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to
ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm
advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE
(generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any
hail threat very isolated at best.

....Northwest...
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a
broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper
trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period.
Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and
related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat
for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with
the more robust updrafts.

$$

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