Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 06 2023 16:24:32

ACUS01 KWNS 061624
SWODY1
SPC AC 061622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

....Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the
Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to
ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm
advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE
(generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any
hail threat very isolated at best.

....Northwest...
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a
broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper
trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period.
Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and
related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat
for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with
the more robust updrafts.

...Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023

$$

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