Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 06 2023 12:46:54

ACUS01 KWNS 061246
SWODY1
SPC AC 061245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

....Synopsis...
A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern
today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states.
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east.  This
disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying
trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period.  Weak
elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a
cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of
thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of
Lower MI through early afternoon.  Farther west, a mid-level trough
with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific
into the northwestern CONUS during the period.  Scant buoyancy will
limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast
inland into the northern Rockies.  Elsewhere, quiescent conditions
will prevail across the CONUS.

...Smith.. 11/06/2023

$$

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