Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 06 2023 09:57:24

ACUS48 KWNS 060957
SWOD48
SPC AC 060955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity
early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it
southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this
front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day
across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward
progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the
Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary
cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream
shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely
continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its
attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS
Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along
the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into
the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the
stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping
the severe chances low.

Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the
central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and
thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be
under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday
through D8/Monday.

...Mosier.. 11/06/2023

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