Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 06 2023 08:09:23

ACUS03 KWNS 060809
SWODY3
SPC AC 060808

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest
Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan
on Wednesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian
Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning.
Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger
troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress
northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and
Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to
this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS,
before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its
parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep
eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX
Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low
is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front
extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country.

Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s
dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH
Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag
behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and
resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm
development throughout much of the period. The only exception is
within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest
IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling
mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates)
may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool
profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts,
but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration.

...Mosier.. 11/06/2023

$$

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