Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 05 2023 19:50:51

ACUS01 KWNS 051950
SWODY1
SPC AC 051949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON...

....SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will
be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far
northern California coast.

....20z Update...

No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area
along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast
details.

Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed
from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most
likely near the end of the period further east across northeast
WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still
modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward
progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes.

...Leitman.. 11/05/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/

....Western OR and far northern CA coast...
Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a
long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent
beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of
embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the
Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific
lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of
conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager
buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and
occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight
as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will
strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and
low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells
will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong
gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat
should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to
south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of
the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette
Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening.

$$

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