Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 05 2023 17:07:51

ACUS02 KWNS 051707
SWODY2
SPC AC 051706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into
parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on
Monday.

....Synopsis...

Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of
the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains
into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific
coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave
upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow
will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster
weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in
isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is
expected to remain limited.

Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will
develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A
cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity.
The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as
persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains
northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front
across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold
temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes.
Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F
and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude
thunderstorm activity.

...Leitman.. 11/05/2023

$$

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