Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 05 2023 08:25:05 FOUS30 KWBC 050825 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 AM EST Sun Nov 05 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Nov 06 2023 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA... No major changes were made with this morning's update to the Marginal Risk area for a small portion of southwest OR and northwest CA. The next AR is expected to being impacting this area late this afternoon on the southern end of a front that will impact northern coastal areas first, then the rain gradually spreads down the coast. This AR will not be as strong as previous ones, with IVT values around 400 kg/ms. As the first front that brings rain to the entire Pacific Northwest coast moves inland, a second front will follow behind it from the southwest, with the rain spreading northward up the coast. The result will be that the most prolonged rains today will be around the OR/CA border, which when added to previous days' rains will result in an isolated flash flooding threat. HREF neighborhood probabilities for seeing 3 inches of rain over the day are between 60-70 percent across the southwest corner of OR. Rainfall rates during the heaviest rains could exceed 1 inch per hour, but like previous days...individual cells should be moving at a fast enough clip that those heaviest rainfall rates will be short-lived. With that said however, there will be numerous rounds of cells capable of producing 1 inch per hour rainfall rates, which will quickly add up over this area. Wegman Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4xGupkaTbkLZ9--DqfuLBPphSSUqDj0XaQiW3gIdeq6P= vU1k_ovc_zr3X5O0a27kLxLq3ZNF6gFxDzaHjkt15ED509E$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4xGupkaTbkLZ9--DqfuLBPphSSUqDj0XaQiW3gIdeq6P= vU1k_ovc_zr3X5O0a27kLxLq3ZNF6gFxDzaHjkt1I_6os7Y$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4xGupkaTbkLZ9--DqfuLBPphSSUqDj0XaQiW3gIdeq6P= vU1k_ovc_zr3X5O0a27kLxLq3ZNF6gFxDzaHjkt1TZQRK10$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .