Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 05 2023 08:22:47

ACUS48 KWNS 050822
SWOD48
SPC AC 050821

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Phased shortwave troughs are expected to result in modest upper
troughing from the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into central CA
early D4/Wednesday morning. Northern-stream shortwave is forecast to
make quick eastward progress while the southern-stream shortwave
trough trends slower as it moves over the Southwest. At the same
time, a surface low initially over KS/OK will likely move quickly
northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley.
Cold front attendant to this low will sweep southward/southeastward
in its wake, moving through OK and the TX Panhandle and Mid MS and
OH Valleys. Thunderstorms along this front will be limited by warm
mid-level temperatures and resulting convective inhibition.

Thunderstorm chances appear to increase on D5/Thursday across the
southern Plains as the front continues gradually southward and the
southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned previously continues
eastward into the region. Buoyancy should remain modest, keeping
severe potential low.

By D6/Friday, dry and stable conditions are likely across the
majority of the CONUS, with the exception of the Southeast and FL. A
few thunderstorm appear possible as the front continues
southeastward across the Southeast and FL on D6/Friday and
D7/Saturday, but scant buoyancy will again limit the severe
potential.

...Mosier.. 11/05/2023

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