Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 04 2023 16:16:13

ACUS01 KWNS 041616
SWODY1
SPC AC 041614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the
southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within
the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting
northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent
will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing
thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager
elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm
conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR
and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight.

A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated
thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the
southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb
warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely
adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few
hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with
the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from
the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low
probability thunder threat.

...Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023

$$

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