Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 04 2023 12:31:14

ACUS01 KWNS 041231
SWODY1
SPC AC 041229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific
Northwest and south Florida.

....Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over the Pacific
Northwest and slowly lose amplitude through tonight.  Isolated
lightning flashes will be possible this morning with slightly
elevated convection in the main baroclinic band, while it is not
clear that post-frontal convection later today into tonight will be
deep enough to produce lightning.  Farther inland across parts of
eastern OR/WA into ID, cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening
lapse rates will result in at least weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300
J/kg) and the potential for isolated lightning flashes later this
afternoon into early tonight.

Otherwise, a modifying air mass along a stalled front across
southeast FL and a diffuse southern stream shortwave trough could
support isolated thunderstorms later today.  However, forcing for
ascent and buoyancy will remain relatively weak, which suggests that
storm coverage/intensity will be limited.

...Thompson.. 11/04/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.