Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 04 2023 05:23:12 ACUS01 KWNS 040523 SWODY1 SPC AC 040521 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ....Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls will develop across the northwestern CONUS Saturday ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that will approach the WA/OR Coast during the evening. Weak elevated convection may generate lightning ahead of the surface front within the warm-advection regime. Otherwise, as profiles cool and lapse rates steepen, weak buoyancy near the coast may prove adequate for a flash or two of lightning within post-frontal environment. Isolated thunderstorms may also be noted east of the Cascades in association with weak frontal convection. Overall, thunderstorm activity will prove quite sparse across this region Saturday. ....South Florida... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast across the central Gulf Basin. This feature will encourage higher-PW air mass to advance a bit north into south FL. While the primary zone of low-level confluence will remain just offshore, moistening profiles and sustained weak warm advection suggest scattered convection should evolve along the cool side of the boundary. Forecast soundings for MIA are adequately buoyant for lightning production within the deeper updrafts, and large-scale support ahead of the short wave appears favorable for this scenario. ...Darrow/Bentley.. 11/04/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .