Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 04 2023 00:31:09

ACUS01 KWNS 040031
SWODY1
SPC AC 040029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of areas will experience isolated, very weak convection
tonight.

....01z Update...

No changes to previous forecast with only a couple of areas of very
weak convection expected.

One area where isolated thunderstorms may be noted is across the
High Plains from southeast WY into central NE. Satellite imagery
depicts a digging short-wave trough that will influence this region
later this evening/overnight. 00z sounding from UNR exhibits steep
lapse rates but only meager moisture. Lifting a near-surface-based
parcel, it's weakly buoyant through the 500mb layer where
temperatures are less than -20C. This may prove adequate for a few
flashes of lightning with convection overnight.

Across extreme south FL, PW values should gradually increase through
the night ahead of a weak short-wave trough that will approach the
peninsula by daybreak. Although lapse rates will remain poor, weak
warm advection and very moist profiles suggest some risk lighting
within this weak warm-advection regime.

...Darrow.. 11/04/2023

$$

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