Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 03 2023 19:57:11

ACUS01 KWNS 031957
SWODY1
SPC AC 031955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

...Gleason.. 11/03/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/

....Discussion...
A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will
persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated
thunderstorm activity appear possible.

Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z.
Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater
Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east
over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the
end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal
lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation.

An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern
Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great
Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for
ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant
elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very
isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early
tonight in southeast WY and western NE.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.