Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 03 2023 16:08:08

ACUS01 KWNS 031608
SWODY1
SPC AC 031606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight.

....Discussion...
A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will
persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated
thunderstorm activity appear possible.

Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z.
Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater
Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east
over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the
end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal
lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation.

An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern
Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great
Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for
ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant
elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very
isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early
tonight in southeast WY and western NE.

...Grams.. 11/03/2023

$$

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