Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 03 2023 08:05:06

ACUS48 KWNS 030805
SWOD48
SPC AC 030803

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough
will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on
D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just
to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated
with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH
Valley on D4/Monday.

This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or
early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead
of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated
ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning
over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward
on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley.
Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this
front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and
ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday.

...Mosier.. 11/03/2023

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