Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 02 2023 19:32:07

ACUS01 KWNS 021931
SWODY1
SPC AC 021930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

...Gleason.. 11/02/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/

Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
over virtually all of the CONUS today.  The one area of minor
concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves
ashore.  However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is
moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far.
Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10%
lightning probabilities for this region.  But nevertheless, an
isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out.

$$

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