Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 02 2023 12:37:01

ACUS01 KWNS 021236
SWODY1
SPC AC 021235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated. brief thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of
southern Oregon and northwestern California today.

....Synopsis...
On the large scale, mean mid/upper-level troughing will remain over
east-central North America, with associated cyclonic flow common
between the Mississippi Valley and East Coast.  Associated
continental/polar air in low levels will continue to keep conditions
unsuitable for thunderstorms over most of the CONUS landmass.
However, upstream ridging aloft will deamplify, with flow becoming
more zonal, amid numerous transitory shortwaves of varying
amplitudes.  The strongest of those is evident in moisture-channel
imagery offshore from the Pacific Northwest, extending south-
southwestward from a vorticity max located west of Vancouver Island
and south of Haida Gwaii.  The shortwave trough will move inland by
00Z, preceded by belts of large-scale ascent in the form of low-
level warm advection and low/middle-tropospheric DCVA.

With little or no lightning observed offshore so far, a crucial
component of convective-scale lift will need to take the form of
nearshore/onshore convergence above the near-surface stable layer,
and/or stronger baroclinically driven ascent to LFC than evident
yet.  Sufficiency of those processes is uncertain, given mesoscale
convective trends and the weakness of forecast buoyancy overall
(MUCAPE generally under 300 J/kg).  Still, with forecast soundings
still commonly showing low-density elevated MUCAPE extending
vertically into icing layers suitable for lightning generation, a
small and very low-end general-thunder area is retained for now,
with only minor spatial adjustments.

...Edwards.. 11/02/2023

$$

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