Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 02 2023 08:31:31

ACUS48 KWNS 020831
SWOD48
SPC AC 020829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that a belt of strong
mid/upper flow propagating out of the southern mid-latitude Pacific
will undergo at least modest amplification while crossing the U.S.
during the early through middle portion of next week.  It now
appears probable that one emerging short wave trough will contribute
to significant surface cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by
Monday, which may rapidly migrate across parts of the St. Lawrence
Valley and New England into the Canadian Maritimes by early
Wednesday morning.

Guidance appears increasingly suggestive that a narrow plume of weak
to modest Gulf moisture return, on strengthening southerly low-level
flow, may be drawn into the developing warm sector on Monday, before
becoming cut-off. With sufficient boundary-layer destabilization,
deep-layer shear and synoptic forcing for ascent could become
conducive to organized severe convection.  At the present time,
however, it seems most probable that peak CAPE will remain on the
order of 500 J/kg or less, resulting in only marginal severe weather
probabilities.  But, this could still include low-topped supercells
and/or a narrow organizing squall line.

Into the middle of next week, latest guidance appears to be trending
toward weaker surface wave development along the trailing front,
associated with an upstream short wave trough forecast to progress
east of the Rockies.

...Kerr.. 11/02/2023

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