Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 02 2023 07:56:48

FOUS30 KWBC 020756
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Thu Nov 02 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 02 2023 - 12Z Fri Nov 03 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND THE CASCADES OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON...

General 1-2" with local up to 3" is forecast for the front half of
the forecast period with a degrading AR signature after 18Z as the
cold front moves inland and shuts off the moisture pipeline. The
Cascades and Olympic Peninsula are very much favored for the
continued heavy rain potential, although intensity wise will fall
below the 1"/hr mark. The Marginal Risk area was maintained for
the compounding concerns of total rainfall with some localized
flash flooding risks across the terrain influenced areas, albeit
with adjustments to reflect the latest trends in QPF and WPC
forecast..

Campbell/Kleebauer




Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 03 2023 - 12Z Sat Nov 04 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF WASHINGTON, OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

A resurgence of Pacific moisture will push inland further south
than the previous AR plume-- with PW values of 1.25/1.5 streaming
onshore of Oregon and northern California. The highest PW values
will be focused over the Smith River region with anomalies of +3.5
sigma for early November. Orographic lift will help enhance the
rainfall intensities and amounts as showers track over the
coastline. There will be a relative lull from the second half of
the D1 period through the first half of the D2 period which will
help with some recovery of soil saturation before 00Z 04 November.
=46rom 00Z-12Z, each 6-hr period could receive 1 to 2 inches from
Northwest Washington southward to northwest California which would
maintain an elevated threat for localized areas of excessive
rainfall. A Marginal Risk area was raised for this period and
spans from northwest Washington to far northwest California.=20=20=20
=20
Campbell

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5whHWQuSrN7hkZmgLm2rAGWoilLEPRYD9IJB-Jwnd4pT=
J5Yg0ana3_3pV3gLdMx1NM-eHqAAb7tuLRK4QVU6_7n6HP8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5whHWQuSrN7hkZmgLm2rAGWoilLEPRYD9IJB-Jwnd4pT=
J5Yg0ana3_3pV3gLdMx1NM-eHqAAb7tuLRK4QVU6iuJ9U4c$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5whHWQuSrN7hkZmgLm2rAGWoilLEPRYD9IJB-Jwnd4pT=
J5Yg0ana3_3pV3gLdMx1NM-eHqAAb7tuLRK4QVU6xcF3HY4$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.