Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 02 2023 06:45:02 ACUS03 KWNS 020644 SWODY3 SPC AC 020643 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ....Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ....Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ...Kerr.. 11/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .