Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 02 2023 04:38:59

ACUS02 KWNS 020438
SWODY2
SPC AC 020437

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday
through Friday night.

....Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave
trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern
mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night.  This
perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant
surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the
British Columbia coast.  Precipitation may initially spread inland
with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by
a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z
Saturday.  While layers of very weak elevated instability may
contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that
relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally
tend to inhibit lightning production.

East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be
maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid
Atlantic.  Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible
across most areas.  However, it is possible that boundary layer
modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the
southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient
destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday
night.

...Kerr.. 11/02/2023

$$

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