Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 01 2023 08:09:50

FOUS30 KWBC 010809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023 - 12Z Thu Nov 02 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON STATE AND NORTHWEST OREGON...

The latest guidance is persistent with the atmospheric river
across western Washington and into northwest Oregon with the
highest rainfall focused over the Cascades in Washington and
Oregon into the Columbia Gorge over northern Oregon. Rain
intensity ramps up around 00Z Nov 2 and maintains a continuous
0.5-1"/hr rainfall rate over terrain through 12Z. Rainfall
intensity will mostly reside below the 1"/hr mark for a majority
of the area, but will cause some localized flooding potential
within smaller towns and more established urban settings,
especially for recent burn scars and other sensitive areas. Areal
averages are still expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch range with
very localized maxes up to 4 inches certainly possible. The 12z
HREF neighborhood probabilities of at least 3" of rainfall between
00-12z Thursday (Second half of the D1 period) is running very
high (70-90%) within the southern Washington Cascades down into
the valley west of Portland near Mount Hood. The Marginal Risk
area was maintained with some minor adjustments to reflect the
latest trend in model guidance and WPC QPF.

Campbell


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8S_bEtujvpYtobQlqv2-AkyynbJQUj6zcNphD-a4cJ3C=
L1Yd2CbStFt4LyTu1eKweSUkXPIKzajPv7L8DGBqrmdHZcw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8S_bEtujvpYtobQlqv2-AkyynbJQUj6zcNphD-a4cJ3C=
L1Yd2CbStFt4LyTu1eKweSUkXPIKzajPv7L8DGBqbmp4CGA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8S_bEtujvpYtobQlqv2-AkyynbJQUj6zcNphD-a4cJ3C=
L1Yd2CbStFt4LyTu1eKweSUkXPIKzajPv7L8DGBq4YqsP9U$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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