Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 01 2023 08:41:25

ACUS48 KWNS 010841
SWOD48
SPC AC 010839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to suggest a pattern evolution which
could support at least increasing potential for thunderstorm
activity during the early through middle portion of next week.  It
appears that a belt of strong mid/upper flow will emerge from the
southern mid-latitude Pacific and undergo amplification while
crossing the U.S.

Latest output, including the ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS, has trended
faster and less amplified (compared to 24 hours ago) with an initial
perturbation progressing east of the Rockies late Sunday into early
Monday.  Forcing for ascent and surface cyclone development are also
focused farther north, along a stalling surface front across the
middle Missouri Valley through southern/lower Great Lakes region by
late Monday afternoon, and across New England on Tuesday.  While it
does not appear out of the question that vertical shear and lift
within the warm sector of this system may become sufficient to
support a risk for severe thunderstorms given enough
destabilization, it still appears that weak moisture return in the
wake of the recent cold intrusion through the Gulf of Mexico will be
a limiting factor.

Spread is larger among the various models concerning renewed
cyclogenesis to the lee of southern Rockies by next Wednesday,
associated with a trailing short wave trough.  Barring more
substantive amplification than current guidance suggests is most
probable, low-level moisture return might still not support more
than very limited severe weather potential.

...Kerr.. 11/01/2023

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