Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 01 2023 06:31:23

ACUS03 KWNS 010631
SWODY3
SPC AC 010630

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday
through Friday night.

....Discussion...
Models indicate that another substantive short wave trough will
emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude
Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific
Northwest coast by late Friday night.  This perturbation is forecast
to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which
may begin occluding while approaching the coast.  The occluding
front may progress into Pacific Northwest coastal areas prior to 12Z
Saturday, with an associated band of precipitation.  Layers of very
weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, but
forecast soundings suggest minimal potential for lightning, due to
relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft.

East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to generally
be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid
Atlantic.  It is possible that boundary layer modification and
moistening near the Gulf Stream may support sufficient
destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity, but this
likely will remain confined offshore.  Farther north, a reinforcing
intrusion of cool/dry and stable air appears likely to overspread
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and northern Great Plains,
associated with a deep cyclone centered over Hudson Bay.

...Kerr.. 11/01/2023

$$

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