Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 31 2023 19:35:52

ACUS01 KWNS 311935
SWODY1
SPC AC 311934

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes
and immediate vicinity, as well as off the southeastern Florida
coast.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for
more information.

...Dean.. 10/31/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/

....Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential today is expected to remain largely over the
Great Lakes and off the southeastern Florida Coast. A compact upper
low is evident in mid-morning satellite imagery over southern
WI/northern IL. This feature is expected to begin tracking to the
east over the next 12 hours in tandem with the mean upper trough. 12
UTC soundings across the Midwest and Great Lakes sampled very cold
temperatures aloft associated with this feature (500 mb temperatures
between -30 to -40 C), which will overspread the warmer waters of
the Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy
will be minimal, lapse rates should be sufficiently steep to support
occasional lightning flashes over the Lakes and along the lake
shores. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along a residual
boundary off the southeastern FL coast; however, convection should
remain offshore.

$$

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