Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 31 2023 08:02:41

FOUS30 KWBC 310802
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20
=20
Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
WASHINGTON STATE FROM THE CASCADES WEST...

An atmospheric river will be making its way inland during this
period, bringing beneficial moisture to western parts of Oregon
while moderate-to-heavy rainfall for northwest Oregon and western
Washington. Much of coastal Oregon and the Willamette Valley are
experiencing lower than normal river levels, so the start of this
first atmospheric river will largely be absorbed into the soil.
Recent burn scars scattered about the Washington Cascades will
increase the threat for localized flooding concerns with this
anomalous plume of moisture. PW values of 1.5 inches will be
nearly double the normal for early November by 00Z then another
surge brings it to being tripled the average. The Marginal Risk
area that was already in effect had minor adjustments made to
reflect the latest trend in model guidance and WPC QPF.

Campbell


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Os7b7IEa1hKuTyGti840b3NE25iMMbCaj0ySpG6-F-w=
GOTzwzzKioG02fv0jjlkcxgRKqn-xdDgTrbRfXyx7F5CK28$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Os7b7IEa1hKuTyGti840b3NE25iMMbCaj0ySpG6-F-w=
GOTzwzzKioG02fv0jjlkcxgRKqn-xdDgTrbRfXyxbAn6KeE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Os7b7IEa1hKuTyGti840b3NE25iMMbCaj0ySpG6-F-w=
GOTzwzzKioG02fv0jjlkcxgRKqn-xdDgTrbRfXyx3N5Sra8$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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