Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 31 2023 04:57:18

ACUS01 KWNS 310457
SWODY1
SPC AC 310455

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the Lower 48 today.

....Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will sweep eastward across the upper
Great Lakes and into the middle and lower MS Valley during the day,
reaching into the northeastern states and to the Appalachians by 12Z
Wed.  Strong northwest flow aloft will exist behind this trough,
from the Plains into the Southeast, resulting in a stable pattern
for thunderstorms.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with
strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East
Coast. Given this flow regime, any appreciable low-level moisture
will be largely offshore.

Weak low-level instability may develop beneath the upper low where
lapse rates will be steep, and with the aid of moist winds across
the Great Lakes. The most likely area for a few lightning flashes
appears to be near Lake MI as a reinforcing cold front enhances
low-level convergence. Inversion heights will rise during the
evening farther east toward Lake Erie as well, and isolated
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out with any lake-enhanced,
convective showers.

...Jewell/Squitieri.. 10/31/2023

$$

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