Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 31 2023 04:42:15

ACUS02 KWNS 310442
SWODY2
SPC AC 310440

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

....Discussion...
Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous
short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of
accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the
northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening.  In
the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level
flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the
Rockies.  Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will
build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being
maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through
lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity.

A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing
large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American
Pacific coast vicinity.  This feature may be preceded by a fairly
extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an
associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone.
However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict
layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak
lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for
more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes.  The forecast mid-level
cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore
through this period.

...Kerr.. 10/31/2023

$$

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