Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 30 2023 12:44:43 ACUS01 KWNS 301244 SWODY1 SPC AC 301242 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Areas of thunderstorms are not expected today. ....Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a positively tiled mean trough will shift eastward across the central/southwestern CONUS through the period. This will occur largely in response to a strong shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of AB/SK. This perturbation will dig southeastward by 00Z to the Dakotas, northwestern MN and adjoining northwestern ON. As the trough proceeds overnight toward northwestern MO, IA and WI, an accompanying 500-mb low should form, reaching the LSE area around the end of the period. All of that will occur well behind a surface cold front, analyzed at 11Z this morning from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward over the southern Appalachians to the northwestern Gulf. By 00Z, the front should extend from the Hampton Roads region across central GA, the FL Panhandle and the central/southwestern Gulf. By 12Z tomorrow, it should be offshore all except peninsular FL, where northerly surface flow will develop on both sides (minimizing frontal lift). Through the period, the showery convective regime in the northern Upper Great Lakes will evolve from one driven largely by steep lapse rates -- compelled by post-frontal cold advection atop relatively high theta-e of the near-lake-surface layer -- to a hybrid of that with a warm-advection conveyor around the poleward sector of the cyclonic shortwave circulation. Forecast soundings periodically have indicated CAPE (generally less than 200 J/kg) extending into favorable icing layers for lightning for valid times up to now, without lightning detected. They continue to do so episodically through tonight; however, weak overall lift and lack of stronger inflow-layer theta-e also should continue to limit realization of that potential. While isolated flashes still cannot be ruled out, overall coverage appears to be less than 10% for the period over the region. ...Edwards/Goss.. 10/30/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .