Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 30 2023 07:53:16

FOUS30 KWBC 300753
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 30 2023 - 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20
=20
Campbell



Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20
=20
Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

Shortwave energy along with a plume of PW values of 1.25/1.5
inches approaching the Pacific Northwest will move inland during
this period, spreading rainfall across the coast and points
inland. This moisture surge will be 2 to 2.5 st. deviations above
normal for early November, and with orographic enhancement, the
rain may be moderate to heavy across western portions of
Washington and Oregon. Recent moisture has increased soil
saturation across the region and with areal averages of 1 to 3
inches forecast local areas of flash flooding may arise. A
Marginal Risk area is in effect for portions of the Pacific
Northwest Coast and east into the Northern Cascades.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ezGDBflOWPcqTp0uhVTpvlUUckEvV8AItjXGlemQaBz=
Dzd-UUzSHpSRnWk5Mtln7Izr_9GfzTWX_KueMnmpCbKoHG4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ezGDBflOWPcqTp0uhVTpvlUUckEvV8AItjXGlemQaBz=
Dzd-UUzSHpSRnWk5Mtln7Izr_9GfzTWX_KueMnmpwrtOJ4o$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ezGDBflOWPcqTp0uhVTpvlUUckEvV8AItjXGlemQaBz=
Dzd-UUzSHpSRnWk5Mtln7Izr_9GfzTWX_KueMnmpjFP3ZxQ$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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