Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 30 2023 04:45:40

ACUS02 KWNS 300445
SWODY2
SPC AC 300443

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night.

....Discussion...
Downstream of amplified, but gradually weakening mid-level ridging
near the North American Pacific coast, one vigorous short wave
impulse of Arctic origins likely will be in the process of digging
southeast of the Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley by 12Z Tuesday.
At the same time, models indicate another broader perturbation
emerging from the Arctic, before continuing to dig toward the
western Hudson Bay/northern Manitoba vicinity through 12Z Wednesday.
As this occurs, and downstream ridging builds across the
mid-latitude western Atlantic, it appears that the southern impulse
may undergo considerable shearing across the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by late Tuesday
night.

Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of this feature, the center
of large cold surface ridging is forecast to shift from the lee of
the northern Rockies through the southern Great Plains Red River
Valley, while slowly weakening.  The shallow leading edge of this
cold air mass is forecast to advance a bit more rapidly offshore of
the southern Atlantic Seaboard, through the central Florida
Peninsula, and all but perhaps the far southern and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

In advance of this front, northerly flow across the southern Florida
Peninsula, in the wake of a developing low along a remnant
preceding surface boundary to the northeast of the Bahamas, will
maintain higher moisture content air offshore of the southeastern
coastal areas.

....Great Lakes vicinity...
Beneath the southeastward/eastward advancing mid-level cold core,
including temperatures near or below -20C around 700 mb, steep
low-level lapse rates may support scattered low-topped convection.
Mainly over the lakes and immediate downwind coastal areas, some of
this activity may occasionally become capable of producing
lightning, particularly near the primary remnant mid-level cyclonic
vorticity center as it crosses southern Lake Michigan Tuesday
afternoon.

...Kerr.. 10/30/2023

$$

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