Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 30 2023 00:49:06

FOUS30 KWBC 300049
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Oct 30 2023 - 12Z Mon Oct 30 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Shower coverage over portions of eastern TX into AR should expand
overnight as mid/upper level forcing increases. However the bulk
of this activity will be post-frontal, and thus instability is
expected to be minimal. This will result in generally weak
rainfall rates...thus looking more at an expansion of moderate
rainfall as compared to heavy convective rainfall. So while
additional rainfall of 0.5"-1.5" is probable along an axis from
eastern TX into KY, this rainfall is not expected to result in
flash flooding given the lowered rain rates.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 30 2023 - 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20
=20
Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8R3hivNEwkJSSYq4OXIcbPY5ebYNuXkNkEWFp6ceCTzn=
aLGne4hkWtNJOn3jEtTjw2GGZS3oGwBB9I-O0Tn1MlHCELM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8R3hivNEwkJSSYq4OXIcbPY5ebYNuXkNkEWFp6ceCTzn=
aLGne4hkWtNJOn3jEtTjw2GGZS3oGwBB9I-O0Tn1QqKnuYM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8R3hivNEwkJSSYq4OXIcbPY5ebYNuXkNkEWFp6ceCTzn=
aLGne4hkWtNJOn3jEtTjw2GGZS3oGwBB9I-O0Tn12EGf0pU$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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