Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 29 2023 12:35:08 ACUS01 KWNS 291235 SWODY1 SPC AC 291233 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ....Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a longwave trough will persist from the Hudson Bay region across the northern Plains, central Rockies, and Desert Southwest. Within the associated cyclonic flow, several shortwaves will reinforce the larger-scale troughing and lead to height falls sagging southward across most of the central/eastern CONUS. However, as is typical for positively tilted patterns of this sort, the great majority of large-scale ascent will remain behind an associated surface cold front, with weak low/middle-level lapse rates anticipated along/ahead of the front. At 11Z, that front was analyzed from a low between LEX-CVG, southwestward to another, weaker low over southwestern AR, then across central TX to the Rio Grande just upstream from DRT, across the Big Bend area, to central NM. By 00Z, the leading low should reach northern PA, with the cold front across eastern KY, middle TN, and northern MS, while the secondary low migrates/redevelops to the MLU vicinity. From there, the cold front should extend near a POE-GLS-CRP-LRD line, then into higher terrain of northern Coahuila. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern portions of PA/WV/TN, central AL, southern MS, and the northwestern Gulf. Bands of isolated to scattered, elevated thunderstorms are ongoing behind the front across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks region. This activity should persist episodically and shift/spread southeastward over the outlook area, in a regime of elevated low- level warm advection, moisture transport, and isentropic lift to LFC. Any thunderstorms forming over south TX along the front -- as it impinges on richly moist boundary layer but beneath weak midlevel lapse rates -- should be undercut by the front before becoming elevated or dissipating. Organized severe potential appears quite minimal due to a lack of stronger shear, lift and buoyancy. A risk for isolated non-severe thunderstorms also exists this morning over parts of eastern PA, and tonight over and near Lake Superior. ...Edwards/Goss.. 10/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .