Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 29 2023 06:59:06 ACUS03 KWNS 290659 SWODY3 SPC AC 290658 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ....Discussion... Models suggest that mid-level ridging will be maintained along much of the North American Pacific coast through this period, but this ridging may undergo some further weakening. Downstream, it appears that an initially vigorous short wave trough of Arctic origin may continue digging across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle Mississippi Valley into Tuesday afternoon, before becoming increasingly sheared across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing intrusion of cold/dry air across most areas east of the Rockies by 12Z Wednesday. A significant preceding cold front may advance more quickly across southeastern Georgia into the central Florida Peninsula, and all but the far southern and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A lingering modestly moist southerly return flow will continue to be undercut by the shallow leading edge of the cold air, with relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates aloft continuing to minimize the risk for lightning. Northerly low-level flow in the wake of a developing surface low to the northeast of the Bahamas will confine high moisture content air offshore of southeastern Florida coastal areas. ....Great Lakes vicinity... Beneath the cold core of the large-scale interior U.S. mid-level troughing, including temperatures near or below -20C around 700 mb, steep low-level lapse rates may support scattered low-topped convection. Mainly over the lakes and immediate downwind coastal areas, some of this may occasionally become capable of producing lightning. ...Kerr.. 10/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .