Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 29 2023 05:28:33

ACUS01 KWNS 290528
SWODY1
SPC AC 290526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis...
An elongated upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southwestward
across the Rockies early this morning, with a broad area of strong
southwest flow from the southern Rockies across the Plains and into
the Canadian Maritimes. This trough will sweep eastward across the
Plains during the day, with an intensifying 110 kt midlevel jet from
IL into Lake Erie by Monday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will surge south across the southern
Plains and toward the lower MS Valley by 00Z, with slower progress
across the OH Valley, where a weak pre-frontal trough will develop.


Despite the cool air mass across the southern Plains, elevated
moisture and instability will remain, with over 500 J/kg MUCAPE
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lighting activity
will likely be maximized in the early to midday time frame from
parts of TX into OK, ahead of the 850 mb cold front. Farther
northeast, instability will be weaker, with limited storm coverage
expected.

...Jewell.. 10/29/2023

$$

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