Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 29 2023 00:54:01

ACUS01 KWNS 290053
SWODY1
SPC AC 290052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to marginally severe storm remain possible this evening
and into the early morning hours over a small part of west Texas and
extreme southeastern New Mexico.

....Southwest TX...
A cold front currently extends from central TX into southeast NM,
with a gradual southward motion. The 00Z MAF sounding shows a
capping inversion with around 1100 J/kg MLCAPE, and moderate mid to
high level flow. Ongoing small cells exist to the southwest, but
remain quite disorganized. Sporadic cells may persist in the
relatively warmer air, prior to frontal passage.

Despite the likelihood of elevated parcels north of the front,
sufficient instability may still support a marginal hail threat as
the deepening post-frontal air mass aids cap removal for elevated
parcels. Moderate southwest flow aloft with the positive-tilt trough
may enhance deep-layer shear somewhat tonight, possibly supporting
isolated cells producing marginal hail.

...Jewell.. 10/29/2023

$$

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