Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 28 2023 19:58:01

ACUS01 KWNS 281957
SWODY1
SPC AC 281956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into
the evening over parts of west Texas and extreme southeastern New
Mexico.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk for portions of west
TX and southeastern NM. See Mesoscale Discussion 2267 for more
details on the isolated severe hail/wind threat across these areas
this afternoon.

...Gleason.. 10/28/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023/

....West TX/Southeast NM...
Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending from southeast
NM into west TX.  Strong daytime heating will occur to the south of
the front, with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s - yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg.
Weak large-scale forcing associated with an approaching shortwave
trough over NM will likely result in a widely scattered
thunderstorms along the front and over the higher terrain farther
south.  Forecast soundings appear sufficient for one or two
supercells capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds.  12z CAM
solutions suggest the coverage/confidence in intense cells is
limited, so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

$$

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